Indonesian GDP growth accelerates in Q2, beats forecast By Reuters
2022-08-05 15:55:07
more 
270
2/2 Indonesian GDP growth accelerates in Q2, beats forecast © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: People wearing protective masks to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID) walk through a pedestrian bridge during the afternoon rush hours at the business district in Jakarta, Indonesia, March 15, 2022. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan 2/2

By Stefanno Sulaiman and Gayatri Suroyo

JAKARTA (Reuters) -Indonesia's economic growth accelerated in the April-June quarter amid an export boom driven by rising commodity prices, official data showed on Friday, but monetary tightening, rising inflation and a global recession risk threaten the outlook.

Second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was up 5.44% on a year earlier, showing the fastest growth rate in a year, according to Statistics Indonesia data. That beat the median forecast for a 5.17% rise in a Reuters poll and the first quarter's 5.01% annual growth.

Exports expanded nearly 20% from a year before, a performance that the statistics bureau called "impressive". This compared with 16.22% seen in the previous quarter.

Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, is a major exporter of palm oil, coal, nickel and tin. With the war in Ukraine fuelling an upward cycle in commodity prices this year, the country has seen exports soaring, shoring up its economic resilience.

Household consumption, which accounts for more than half of GDP, recovered further after the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, with the Eid al-Fitr celebration in May providing a further boost. However, investment slowed.

By sector, food and beverages, mining, construction and transport and warehousing saw faster expansion than in the previous period.

It is "strong growth but it won't last as headwinds mount," Gareth Leather, an analyst with Capital Economics, said in a note, predicting exports would be affected by declining commodity prices and a global growth slowdown.

Prices of palm oil have plunged in recent months, but Indonesian coal prices are still hovering around record highs due to strong demand from such markets as Europe.

Already, Indonesia's central bank said last month the rise in full-year GDP for 2022 would be at the lower end of the range of 4.5% to 5.3%. It previously forecast growth in the middle of that range.

In lowering its forecast, Bank Indonesia (BI) said a global slowdown would dent exports and a rise in inflation at home would slow recovery in consumption.

Consumer prices in July were up 4.94% from a year earlier, marking a seven-year high in inflation and prompting calls by economists for BI to lift interest rates from pandemic-era lows.

While the latest GDP data showed "the relatively insular nature of Indonesia's economy" at a time when recession fears dominate headlines, the fact that the economy was doing well should push BI to hike interest rates, said Wellian Wiranto, an economist with OCBC.

OCBC expects the central bank to raise interest rate at this month's policy review.

Chief economic minister Airlangga Hartarto said he was optimistic growth in full-year 2022 GDP would reach the government's 5.2% target. He noted low COVID-19 case numbers and recent investment pledges by foreign companies.

But the economy was still recovering from the pandemic, he said, adding: "We hope BI will not be in a hurry" to raise interest rates.

Companies such as South Korean steel firm POSCO (NYSE:PKX) Holdings and Japanese carmakers Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) Corp and Mitsubishi Motor Corp last week announced plans to increase investment in Indonesia.

Statement:
The content of this article does not represent the views of fxgecko website. The content is for reference only and does not constitute investment suggestions. Investment is risky, so you should be careful in your choice! If it involves content, copyright and other issues, please contact us and we will make adjustments at the first time!

Related News

您正在访问的是FxGecko网站。 FxGecko互联网及其移动端产品是中国香港特别行政区成立的Hitorank Co.,LIMITED旗下运营和管理的一款面向全球发行的企业资讯査询工具。

您的IP为 中国大陆地区,抱歉的通知您,不能为您提供查询服务,还请谅解。请遵守当地地法律。